Hello and Happy New Year Everyone!
My name is Jeff Cameron with The Cameron Team at HomeSmart here Live from McDowell Mountain Ranch in north Scottsdale.
Thanks for tuning into my real estate market report! I will quickly review the numbers and then want to discuss the market and the economy quickly.
As of January 1, 2015, the numbers are below.
Active last yr/month Pending Closed PPSF Sold Months Supply
Metro Phoenix 18,434 -1% -7% 5,717 -3% -17% 5,253 +7% +26% $125 +4% +1% 3,917 +18% -14% 3.5 /4.7
Scottsdale 2,073 +10% -4% 396 7% -17% 375 13% +44% $213 +1% 4%
MMR 53 +0% -16% 14 +17% -13% 14 -7% +27% $240 +8% 1%
Tatum & Bell 19 36% +4% 5 -55% -62% 15 +150% 87% $152 +2% +8%
Here are the numbers on screen. You can take a look at the change, but what are these numbers telling us????
- We experienced the seasonal drop of homes at the beginning of the year, to the lowest point of the year and down 15% from the peak.
- Pending homes continue to drop as there are less and less short sales, plus many traditional home buyers wanted to close before the end of the year.
- Closings jumped 26% from November to December and are up 7% from last year.
- Closings for the whole year, 2014, were -11% from 2013, and 2013 -6% from 2012. 2012 and 2011 were virtually the same. Sales in 2014 were down 17% from 2011/2012.
Why isn’t our market improving more quickly?
Let me explain the 3 different ways one similar floor plan is being exposed to the market. We will refer to Property A, B and C. They are the same floor plan and for this example let’s use $275k, $300k and $330k as our A, B and C respectively.
Remember, these are the same or similar floor plans. Why are they selling at different prices?
A home has white wash cabinets and original 20 year old flooring, lighting and appliances.
B home has some updates done over the year and no white wash cabinets. Maybe some 15 inch tile, lighting etc… All kinds of mixes and could have granite counters.
C Home has been remodeled, maybe not completely, but it shows GREAT!
I am not making this rule, this formula. This is what the market is bearing currently. And the market has the Right to set values. However, appraisers can’t accept the reality that buyers are willing to pay for condition and upgrades. I have had 9 homes not appraise over the past couple of years, almost all my buyer’s purchases as I attend my listing’s appraisal and educate the appraiser on that particular neighborhood.
All 9 sales cancelled. So far, 7 of those homes that failed to appraise for the purchase price sold to another buyer at the same price. 1 is Pending and 1 cancelled last week. It is very difficult when the “Expert’s” opinion of value is not with the market value. Buyers get sketchy and Realtors can look bad as they usually know the home cannot be replaced at the appraised value.
For these reasons, if you decide to sell your home with another Realtor, make sure they meet the appraiser. Even better, call me Jeff Cameron 480-652-2004. I will sell you home at the highest price and meet the appraiser to Do Everything Possible to not have an issue.
Happy New Year!
480-652-2004