There are still people in denial about the rebound in home values here in metro Phoenix and Scottsdale. Its amazing, like they insist nothing can be getting better and real estate is a bad investment.
The Case-Shiller index shows the metro Phoenix market to be up 14% when comparing June 2012 to June 2011. Yes, the market is up, but 14% come on. If you are out looking at homes you know prices are up much more than 14% in the last year. The median home price is up 40%.
The Case-Shiller index shows rise in all 20 cities it monitors.
“The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index showed increases in all of the 20 cities tracked for a second consecutive month. A measure of national prices rose 2.3 percent in June from May, the third straight increase. And home prices jumped nearly 7 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous quarter.”
How is that for evidence of a rebound. Home prices are rising just about everywhere. Here in metro Phoenix and Scottsdale we have been experiencing price increases in real estate since 2009. But back then it was the least expensive homes that bounced off their crazy bottom. Can you believe a John F. Long in Maryvale was selling for $25,000? Those homes rent for $650-750 per month. The cash on cash flow was SICK!
Zillow still says 52% of metro Phoenix homeowners are upside down. Well we all know all accurate a zestimate is. When the market was falling sellers were pointing to their zestimate that was 15% higher than their list price, yet their home was not selling. The zestimate follows the market and is inaccurate. Remember, zillow’s customers are Realtors. That is how they make money. They sell add space, zip codes and leads to Realtors. They tell us their “zestimate is a guide, but we still need Realtors for accuracy.”
“Approximately 52 percent of metro Phoenix homeowners have negative equity in their homes or are upside down, according to Zillow’s second-quarter report. If that sounds high, keep this in mind: The real-estate firm reports that 55 percent of the region’s homeowners owed more than their home was worth at the end of the first quarter.”
Home sales rise 2.3% nationally. Remember, there is no supply in many of the communities recovering from the Financial Crisis. As values continue to rise, we see more home owners with equity enter the market. This will help continue the rise in home sales.
“Sales of previously occupied homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million in July, a 2.3 percent increase from the previous month’s rate, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.”
Mortgage delinquency rates in Arizona are dropping at one of the highest rates in the nation. We are now at 6.1% delinquent, compared to over 11% in November of 2010.
“The rate of Arizona borrowers with mortgages 60 or more days past due fell 21 percent in the second quarter of 2012 from the same time last year, reaching 6.1 percent.”
Here is some data from Foreclosure Radar
Trustee Notices or Foreclosure Notices for metro Phoenix, down over 13% from last month and over 19% from a year ago. They are well off their highs.
This shows that of the 2,470 that went to auction or Trustee Sale or Foreclosure only 1,066 went to the bank and 1,212 were bought by investors. I think banks should be increasing their prices at the trustee sale!
Looking at this graf you can see the number of borrowers in foreclosure has stayed steady through 2012. But it is down 20% from a year ago.
When looking at all these numbers here is what we see with the “Shadow Inventory” The Shadow Inventory is currently at 6,914 homes.
6,914 Total “Shadow Inventory” or assets owned by the bank
1,000 Current Bank Owned property for sale
1,200 Current Bank Owned property under contract
4,514 is the number of homes owned by banks that are not currently for Sale. Less than a 3 week supply based on demand for homes in the valley.
The real estate market is improving and prices are rising. This is the data to prove it!
Just my Opinion…Jeff Cameron