Hi it’s Jeff Cameron your friendly neighborhood Realtor at HomeSmart here Live from McDowell Mountain Ranch in north Scottsdale.
It’s April first, and this is no Joke, I already have the Real Estate Sales numbers for March. That’s right, don’t look at those national numbers, thats not what’s happening here. You can get the facts right here, from me and quickly.
So, what is happening in the real estate market here in metro Phoenix, Scottsdale, my home… McDowell Mountain Ranch and Tatum & Bell neighborhood in Phoenix? I am really excited to bring this report to you!
Over the past year and a half I have been reporting the slowing market, until now. Last month I reported that Michael Orr, the ASU housing Economist, said we were setting up for a strong market. If March is an example of what’s to come, then yes the market has turned. It’s on FIRE! Check out the Cromford Report reading today!
Let’s look at the numbers…
As of April 1, 2015, the numbers are below for Single Family Home Sales.
| Area | Available Homes |
% chg Last year |
% chg Last Month |
Pending | % chg Last year |
% chg Last Month |
Closed Home Sales |
% chg Last year |
% chg Last Month |
PPSF | % chg Last year |
% chg Last Month |
New Sales |
% chg Last year |
% chg Last Month |
Months SupplyBased on closed | Months SupplyBased on new Sales |
| Metro Phoenix | 17776 | -18% | -5% | 10058 | 11% | 15% | 6,473 | 17% | 32% | $126 | 3% | 2% | 7623 | 15% | 21% | 3 | 2 |
| Scottsdale | 2305 | -4% | -1% | 682 | 4% | 10% | 460 | 21% | 45% | $211 | 0% | -3% | |||||
| McDowell Mtn Ranch | 55 | -32% | -5% | 29 | 7% | 0% | 20 | 18% | 67% | $230 | -3% | -12% | |||||
| Tatum & Bell | 11 | -45% | -8% | 13 | 18% | 0% | 9 | -18% | 0% | $157 | 3% | 11% | |||||
There you have it, Supply is Down and Demand is up. We have a recipe for a strong real estate market.
Quickly, I want to mention the Arizona Jobs report for February showed a year over year growth of 71,000 and 61,000 jobs where here in the valley. Over the past 5 months we have seen year over year growth between 50,000 and 61,000, ave 55,000. The previous 9 months created from 28,000 to 48,000; average job growth of 42,000 jobs. So, the rate of job creation has increased here in the valley. We have now created 170,000 new job since Jan 2013 here in metro Phoenix!
So, here is my take on the real estate market:
It’s all about the math, the calculus and the charts. What rate of change are we experiencing? Currently Demand is HIGH and Supply is lower, but at a good level. Homes that are priced right are selling immediately and buyers are more willing to pay for upgrades than every before in my 20 year career.
As I have been reporting, Inventory of Single Family Homes for sale in valley jumped 78% from the 2013 lows to the beginning of 2014. Many buyers were expected a drop in the market and 2014 was a year where we drifted lower. 2015, appears to have the potential to be a very strong year. I don’t want to predict the future, but I am looking at the numbers. Supply is down and Demand is up. Charts don’t lie. We shall see.
Why:
Interest rates, Oil, Jobs, time, boomerang buyers, millennials in the market. There are so many variables, the only ones that count are Supply and Demand.
Just my opinion….
Jeff Cameron 480-652-2004.
HomeSmart
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480-652-2004