November Real Estate Market Report 2013
Happy Thanksgiving!
from The Cameron Team, Homesmart
I hope you saw October’s report, where we did something different and brought you a tour of the Haunted Houses across the valley. In the report, I said something like “the real estate numbers are boring. Not a lot of change.”
I was a little off mark. Inventory grew in September at the largest rate in a long time. The significance of this was amplified when October inventor growth was with blow out numbers. Let’s quickly talk numbers and then what that means.
Metro Phoenix
Active/Available 18,927 +40%
Pending 7,479 -43%
New Sales 4,401 -17%
Closings 5,072 -15%
PPSF $118 +20%
Scottsdale
Active/Available 1,914 +29%
Pending 515 +27%
Closings 326 -16%
PPSF $209 +20%
MMR
Active/Available 53 +39%
Pending 20 -33%
Closings 13 -38%
PPSF $228 +16%
Tatum and Bell
Active/Available 53 +39%
Pending 7 -42%
Closings 7 -56%
PPSF $154 +19%
What I found so interesting is that Sales have fallen off a cliff and inventory spiked. This is not to say the market is falling apart. It has shifted from a sellers market to more of a neutral market as we now have around 4 month supply of homes.
Active homes are up 40% from last year and 56% from their low this summer. That’s a 56% jump since June. The number of home closings dropped by 15%.
Why is this happening??? If I knew everything, I would not be selling homes. Yes, I am over qualified for this, but no magic crystal ball. so let’s look at some reasons for sales to drop and inventory to grow….
1. Rising rates, rates are up from the mid 3’s earlier this year to the mid 4’s
2. The government shut down? That is said to have cost the economy $24 Billion. That’s not much for a $16 Trillion economy, but it had a psychological effect on buyers.
3. We created over 200,000 jobs, so its not job creation. But could it be affordability??? Prices have raged back from their lows.
4. Lots of investors have bought homes to flip, I am seeing those vacant everywhere.
5. Over this past year builders have opened 200 brand new subdivisions. According to Catherine Reagor of AZ Central, the forecast is for 15,000 new homes to be built. I think it will be higher, but we shall see.
I know one thing I am seeing…. If your a buyer you know this too. A buyer may have had 12 homes in their Portal in June, today they have 19.
They have also seen price reductions consistently over the past couple of months. This makes some of them decide to wait on their purchase. The price reductions tell them prices are coming down. That is not necessarily the case, it may just be homes were over priced.
I believe this build in inventory, is like usual a combination of those factors.
I think there will be some good deals during the holidays. Then, we still have a shortage of homes.
Logically, until builders can build enough homes to handle the demand, prices should go up. But they bounced so fast, are they over bought?
So what’s happening in your neighborhood? Call me, Jeff Cameron, and let’s explore that together. (480) 652-2004
Thanks for tuning in to Live in McDowell Mountain Ranch on this beautiful Scottsdale November day!
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