Metro Phoenix and Scottsdale Real Estate and Economic Report – What’s Happening with Homes for Sale? February 2012
Here we are 1 month into 2012! It is SuperBowl Weekend and we are having a Bash! If you haven’t received some kind of invite, here it is! Come on down and enjoy Hot Dogs from across the country!
I have been cautiously predicting 2012 will be the year the real estate market recovers here in Metro Phoenix and Scottsdale. I will review the numbers shortly, but I have been anxiously awaiting yesterday’s employment report. Nice to call it an employment report rather than unemployment report.
The numbers were a blow out. Well, that not true. They beat estimates and that seems to be all they care about. What I have been saying is we JOBS are the last factor to this recovery. There were 243,000 jobs created in January and revisions to 2011 show 180,000 more jobs than previously reported.
This is where the spiraling begins. You see more jobs means more spending which means more jobs. Then we have the 3 Trillion that US businesses are sitting on, if they start spending that look out. Next, at least here in Metro Phoenix and Scottsdale’s housing market, we have clearly bottomed. We are seeing very little inventory, bidding wars and higher prices.
I always hear, “BUT AT WHAT PRICE…” I sold a home just under $600,000 yesterday. It sold in hours after being entered into the MLS. There were multiple showings within hours. This home will close for 10% more than the last sale, but has nicer upgrades and views. We are seeing bidding wars at all levels. Facts: ALL OF THE FOLLOWING ARE DOWN 45% OR MORE FROM THE END OF 2010 – borrowers late on their mortgage, Borrowers in Foreclosure, Homes owned by banks, and actual Bank foreclosures are down 70% from a year ago here in Metro Phoenix and Scottsdale.
The financial crisis which lead to the housing crisis left us with some 120,000 vacant homes abandoned by people that thought they were investors. The valley absorbs 35,000 to 40,000 each year due to population growth. We have been building about 12,000 per year. That pool of vacant homes is close to being gone. Home builders will have to start ramping up and guess what that means??? Yes, more jobs. The builders cannot build for what homes are selling for, unless the land and infrastructure was written to zero in the crisis. Therefore, they will raise prices.
Short Sales have been the biggest cause of valuation declines. With a home seller that just doesn’t care, many Realtors are discounting Short Sales to move them quickly. I see some sales that appear fraudulent. The list for sale at 85% of value, they are not available to be shown and they go under contract the first day. I don’t want to accuse someone of fraud, but why else would this happen????
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I told you I would get to the numbers:
Inventory of Available homes 13,659 a level not seen since Sept 2005
DOWN 603 FROM LAST MONTH
Pending Homes 15,391
UP 1,732 FROM LAST MONTH
Closed Homes
5,400 FLAT FROM LAST YEAR – you can’t sell more homes when you have no inventory.
New Listings for January 6,529 UP 50% FROM LAST MONTH
New Sales in January 7,132 UP 40% FROM LAST MONTH – FLAT FROM LAST YEAR
TRADITIONAL HOME SELLERS NOW MAKE UP 75% OF HOMES FOR SALE!
Don’t tell me I didn’t warn you! Values will recover in 2012, the question is at what rate!
click the link above to read the rest of the article
(Reuters) – The United States created jobs at the fastest pace in nine months in January and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to a near three-year low, giving a boost to President Barack Obama.
Nonfarm payrolls jumped 243,000, the Labor Department said on Friday, as factory jobs grew by the most in a year. The jobless rate fell to 8.3 percent – the lowest since February 2009 – from 8.5 percent in December.
The gain in employment was the largest since April and it far outstripped the 150,000 predicted in a Reuters poll of economists. It hinted
at underlying economic strength and lessened chances of further stimulus from the Federal Reserve.
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Metro Phoenix and Scottsdale Real Estate and Economic Report – What’s Happening with Homes for Sale? February 2012
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