I just received this email below from Karl Stauffer a local real estate broker. I posted it to show other sources supporting my numbers and exactly what is going on in the real estate market here in metro Phoenix and Scottsdale.
Karl runs Capital Asset Managers.
You can see by the numbers he has that the fundamentals in our market are fantastic. I was thinking about the book Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell. He researched and showed how the wealth of the richest people in the world over the history of the world was created during the Industrial Revolution in America. Basically his research came down to the fact that life is all about timing!
Now is the TIME to enter the real estate market and create wealth! The economy is not booming, yet we have converted some 150,000 foreclosures and over 50,000 short sales over the past few years. Foreclosures and Short Sales have peaked. Prices have dropped over 70% in some cases. Rents are exceeding the cost to buy at a rate of 30-40%. Logic dictates that as values were over stated in 2006, they have now been Over Sold and will be rising.
Are you going to be able to say, I was there in and took advantage of opportunities in real estate? Or are you currently saying, I wish I would have bought stock in March of 2009, and in 2015 will be saying I wish I would have bought real estate in 2011?
Check it out! The numbers are the numbers! The facts are the facts! There is no denying this market is for real!
Just my opinion…JeffrCameron
Karl Stauffer’s Real Estate Market Update
| Phoenix Real Estate Market Analysis
©2011 Karl Stauffer |
|
As of the end of June, 2011
ARMLS recorded a record amount of total homes sold for the month of June, 2011. 10,583. More than any other month in the history of our Valley.
The available inventory of homes for sale continues to drop dramatically. The available inventory for sale is at 16,164 SFD homes, 10% below last month.
There were 9047 SFD closings in May. That gives us a market supply of only 1 3/4 months. Pending sales stay strong at 16,649 and continue to surpass the total available supply of homes.
We are in a situation where we have a very extreme shortage of inventory to sell, especially quality inventory. If you are out there with buyers right now, you know how difficult it is to find a well priced, quality house. If you do find one, it is usually gone very quickly.
There is a risk that the market could slow down because we do not have enough homes to sell. There is also setting up to be a real shortage of Luxury homes.
The myth of the “Shadow Inventory” is being exposed. There is no shadow, only homes that are in the process of being foreclosed. If there is a shadow, WE NEED IT ON THE MARKET! We are absorbing homes at a very rapid rate and are in a position to absorb the excess inventory if it exists.
I predict that by the end of this year, we will start to some some good gains in value and that a year from now, we could price appreciation around 10% +/- year over year.
Phoenix is searched as a single entity. West Valley is Surprise, Peoria, Sun City, Glendale, El Mirage, Youngtown, Litchfield Park, Avondale, Goodyear, Buckeye, and Tolleson.
NE Valley is Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Carefree.
SE Valley is Tempe, Mesa, Gilbert, Apache Junction, Queen Creek, and Chandler.
The comparison of current active listing change is based on the previous reports’ inventory. Supply numbers are based on the number of closings in the previous month, divided in to the total number of active listings. This data is for Single Family Detached homes only and does not include patio homes, condos, or town homes. |
| MLS Market Statistics
Breakdown by Area
|
|
Overall Market. Inventories are down 10% from the last report. Total of 16164 active listings with 9047 closings in the last month. About a 1 3/4 month supply.
Phoenix. Inventories are down 12% from the last report. Total of 3389 active listings with 2261 closings in the last month. About a 1 /12 month supply.
West Valley. Inventories are down 13% from the last report. Total of 3643 active listings with 2458 closings in the last month. About a 1 1/2 month supply.
NE Valley.
Inventories are down 9% from the last report. Total of 2358 active listings with 752 closings in the last month. About a 3 1/4 month supply.
SE Valley. Inventories are down 10% from the last report. Total of 3346 active listings with 2227 closings in the last month. About a 1 1/2 month supply. Scottsdale over $1M. Inventories are down 10% from the last report. Total of 498 active listings with 47 closings in the last month. About a 10 1/2 month supply. Scottsdale under $1M. Inventories are down 9% from the last report. Total of 1151 active listings with 519 closes in the last month. About a 2 1/4 month supply. ParadiseValley. Inventories are down 14% from the last report. Total of 247 active listings with 46 closes in the last month. About an 5 1/2 month supply. I hope you find this information useful.
Sincerly,
Karl Stauffer, Associate Broker
Capital Asset Management
602-316-2355
|
480-652-2004