The Good, Bad and Ugly to the Phoenix Real Estate Market by JeffrCameron

Hi-

I just sent this email out to a buyer. I felt it was important and everyone could use this information. So, if you are looking to buy a home in the Phoenix real estate market You need to know The Good, Bad and Ugly to the Phoenix Real Estate Market by JeffrCameron

The Goods:

Interest rates are ridiculously low
The market appears to be rebounding.
Don’t listen to the press they are focused on national news.
We have gone from an Inventory of SFR(single family residences) of 31,000 1/1 to 16,500 today. This is incredible.
over 9,000 SFR closed escrow last month
There are over 17,000 SFR Pending or under contract
I personally have more people interested in buying right now than I have had in 6 years. All are having difficulty finding the right home.
I usually list 1-2 Short Sales per month. I have not listed a short sale for a couple months. The people, my short sale leads, are staying in the home and waiting for government relief or just
I usually get 2 foreclosure listings per month and have had none in 9 weeks. I emailed the bank, it isn’t me, they have very little.

The Bads

You guys are looking in Anthem. Anthem was the first to fall from the real estate crash in 2006. They are now the first to recover. Currently Anthem stats are Available 147 SFR, Pending 178 SFR and closed 339 since 4/1 or last 3.5 months. So, take the 339/3.5 and we get 97 homes closing escrow per month. With 147 available there is a month and a half supply. About 2,500 homes have sold in Anthem since 1/1/09, a time designated as after the crash. There are only 246 homes in Anthem with a scheduled trustee sale. I believe there are somewhere around 10,000 homes in Anthem.

I have taken investors out over the last couple of weeks. We research over 50 homes and all were sold, had multiple offers. They drove a neighborhood and sent me every listing they drove by, all under contract.
I contacted my connection at the Trustee Sale last week. I wanted the investors to buy direct, they have cash. She said, she can’t buy a home (under market value, trustee sale is cash only and she was whining about paying 74% of market last fall) She said investors are coming in and paying Full Retail plus taking on any fix up. This tells me the investors expect a market move.
Appraisers SUCK. I had 3 homes last month not appraise for ridiculous reasons, no stupid reasons. All 3 lowered their price. Appraisers look back 3-4 months and take forever to catch up. This is keeping the market from moving higher right now, but I don’t know how long it will last. I sold another home last month and we FEARED the appraisal and it was fine. No sense. This could be good for you with an REO(bank owned home) or Short Sale. The theory is bid high, don’t appraise and get adjusted back down winning against competitors. Risk is appraisal coming in at value. Also, I had a bank take a lower offer a couple times this year fearing the appraisal.
I believe appraisals have single handedly stopped the market rebound in value. They won’t adjust for the cost to fix some of the trashed homes.

Ugly’s

There are still over 27,000 people in foreclosure in the valley. (down from nearly 60,000) (right now 3,500 are being added, but 4,000 foreclosed or sold at auction and last month 2,500 short sales closed escrow. With these numbers the pool of distressed home owners is dropping strongly. 27,000 + 3,500 = 30,500 – 4,000 – 2,500 = 24,000 I haven’t gotten an update to verify this number)
over 3,500 new foreclosure notices are being sent out each month(down from as high as 9,000, but more recently at 5,000)
There is talk of Shadow inventory.(But I have been waiting for the wave of foreclosures since 2008)
The US debt rating could be down graded by Moodys. This affects the interest rate for everything. If down graded Interest rates will rise.
FHA has kept our limit up to about $350,000 over the last few years due to the financial crisis. This is getting ready to go down to $275,000. This is HUGE. Most of the FHA buyers from $275k to $350k will be forced to buy at $275k. When you increase demand like this, it puts pressure on the pricing below. That is a large group. It creates a domino effect going down. It will help the market recover under $275,000. It will kill the $275-350 market.

Wow, I totally went out of control with this email. I am going to post this as a blog.

Call me to review your specific questions.

Thanks!

Jeff Cameron
MRW HOMES
480-502-7699
Jeff@TheCameronTeam.com
www.AZReoConnection.com

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The Good, Bad and Ugly to the Phoenix Real Estate Market by JeffrCameron

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