Hello and Happy Valentine’s Day this coming Saturday!
My name is Jeff Cameron with The Cameron Team at HomeSmart here Live from McDowell Mountain Ranch in north Scottsdale.
What a great SuperBowl! Not the outcome I preferred, but an exciting fun game. We got what we paid for. Can you believe, the week before and the week after the SuperBowl and Waste Management Open, the weather is in the 80’s. But the week of the events was rainy…
Thanks for tuning into my real estate market report for January home sales in Metro Phoenix, Scottsdale and here at home in McDowell Mountain Ranch.
First, I am excited to report, This will be my 20th Year in real estate helping home buyers and sellers. It is amazing to think of all the wonderful people I have worked with and how the valley has grown. Over those 20 years, I have helped over 1,200 families into homes worth over ¼ Billion Dollars. Wow! And that was my own work, not like today’s mass teams.
Let’s look at the numbers…
As of February 1, 2015, the numbers are below.
Active last yr/month Pending Closed PPSF Sold Months Supply
Metro Phoenix 19,191 -7% +4% 7,351 +3% +29% 3,891 -1% -26% $1254 +3% +0% 5,525 +6% +41% 4.9 /3.5
Scottsdale 2,292 +3% +11% 482 -2% +22% 295 14% -21% $209 -2% -2%
MMR 55 -10% +4% 26 +63% +86% 10 -+11% -29% $228 +2% -5%
Tatum & Bell 16 -11% -16% 12 +33% +140% 2 -71% -87% $149 -4% -2%
Here is what I am seeing:
- New Sales in January jumped Up! Supply based on sales down.
- Our season starts after Valentine’s Day, and I am hearing from a lot of buyers and sellers.
- After doubling inventory going into 2014, we didn’t get a crash. We just drifted lower. Therefore, with less inventory and stronger demand 2015 should be a better year.
- The big question is will the drop in oil prices, that will cause and has caused many layoff be offset by the consumer and businesses saving from lower gas etc… I think the consumer will be stronger. Here in AZ we are not as exposed to the oil industry.
What is affecting our real estate market?
- According to Elliot Pollack, we had less people moving to AZ than past norms. He said, Az population grew 1.3% in 2014, or 86,200. Normal is 3.2% or 210,000. He forecasts 1.6% for metro phoenix in 2015. Less new people means less new homes.
- Still working through Millennials adjustment as they wait a decade later in life to buy a home.
- Tougher lending standards. In 2014, they lowered the FHA limit from $350k to $275k and changed the wait period for buyers from 2 years to 4 years for those that did Short Sales. Bad timing.
I believe we will see a stronger real estate market in 2014 as demand increase, supply steadies and rates stay low.
Just my opinion….
Jeff Cameron 480-652-2004.
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